Yesterday we expected that a Conservative/Lib Dem government would have been formed, but when Gordon Brown resigned at tea time all bets were off and Labour back in the running. The interesting thing about a potential Lib/Lab pact, however, is that they would have to depend on other smaller parties for they would not command an overall majority in the House of Commons. Those parties would include both the SNP and Plaid Cymru who, just as they did in the late 1970s, could wrest significant benefits for their respective countries. With a shift towards voting reform also in the offing, this deal could turn out to be historic. While the Tories are offering a referendum on AV, Labour says they’ll go ahead and implement it and offer a referendum on PR proper.

The question that is asked by journalists and by the Tories, of course, is would such a deal between Labour and the Lib Dems be legitimate? Can a government formed between the parties that came second and third be really democratic? The answer is clearly ‘yes’ in UK terms, since they did command a majority of the popular vote between them. On 36% the Tories cannot claim to have secured a majority of the votes. They may have the largest number of seats in the House but as we are still under the first-past-the-post system they must secure a majority overall to claim a victory. They didn’t. So they either govern on their own or they make compromises and work with others. Labour and the Lib Dems got 51% of the popular vote. So surely, on an UK basis, there would be legitimacy in them forming a government.

But there is another way to view this situation – not from the UK perspective, but from the constituent nations’ perspective. In Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland there is nowhere near a majority Conservative vote – neither in the popular vote or in the number of seats. A Tory government of any kind – be it a minority or in coalition – would have no legitimacy in these nations. Here, Labour is the majority party. A generation of non-legitimate Tory rule in the 1980s and 90s caused deep resentment in these nations and was surely one of the main reasons why – in Scotland and Wales – the vote for devolving power from London was won. Another Tory government could well lead to similar sentiments, thus potentially further weakening the Union.

In England, of course, things are in reverse. There the Tories have a clear majority. They voted for a Tory government and fairness would dictate that that is what they should have. But they face having a very different administration. How will they feel, I wonder, if they end up being governed by parties they not only did not choose but also by parties (SNP and Plaid) they did not even have the opportunity to choose? Where could that lead in, say, four years time? A call for an English parliament?

The current situation following the election has shown us what a constitutional mess we’re in and tinkering with voting reform will not be enough to sort it out.